Vista Equity Partners released its 2026 report on Agentic AI, which argues that investors have been too quick to dismiss legacy enterprise software over fears of new AI-native competition.

“Software is not being replaced but is instead evolving into something more powerful,” writes Vista.

As evidence, the firm references patterns from previous platform shifts. Most notably, the period from 2014 to 2020, when SaaS multiples compressed as investors debated whether AWS and other cloud platforms would displace incumbent vendors. Instead, software demand expanded.

Vista believes AI is likely to follow a similar pattern and argues that if AI adoption moves deeper into enterprise workflows, the application layer is still on track to capture the largest share of value.

It's a different conclusion than recent doom-and-gloom projections that believe horizontal model providers like OpenAI and Anthropic will out-compete vertical vendors via ever-more-powerful general intelligence.

Corporate investment in AI across providers, infrastructure, and software tripled in a year to $37 billion in 2025, with the application layer taking more than half of that spend. Yet Vista also says that only 1 percent of enterprise data is incorporated into the AI tools workers use, even though 20 to 40 percent of workers already use AI in some capacity on the job.

That gap suggests adoption has started at the user level but not yet at the system level.

Lagging adoption may be partially blamed on the distinction between probabilistic models and deterministic systems. The variable nature of LLMs can be fine for use cases like customer service chatbots, but untenable for higher-stakes enterprise workflows requiring greater rigidity and accuracy.

That's part of the reason why Vista is more optimistic on value accrual to the application layer. Per the report, application layer “agentic Enterprise Solutions combine both: AI-generated intelligence acting within governed, deterministic systems.”

Another source of optimism is the potential for revenue model upside. Once software can execute work rather than simply support an employee performing it, companies can move from seat-based licenses to charging for work completed.

Instead of being capped by headcount, revenue growth is then free to scale with volume (e.g. number of claims processed, incidents resolved, or approvals completed).

“This is not a story about replacing workers," notes the report. "It is about software participating directly in specific, repeatable units of work where execution can be standardized, governed, and priced.”

Companies that can make this transition, says Vista, could eventually command higher multiples than traditional SaaS vendors.

Broadly, opportunity selection should focus on three key defensibility tests: context, trust, and scale. Does the vendor have enough workflow depth and domain specificity to make AI useful in production? Can it keep data and intellectual property inside the customer’s environment and deliver auditable decisions? Can it run reliably at enterprise volumes across geographies and business units?

On the other hand, vendors with generic workflows, limited proprietary data, and shallow customer relationships are facing real displacement risk.

• Sysco (NYSE: SYY) agreed to acquire Jetro Restaurant Depot, a cash-and-carry wholesale food distributor, from the Kirsh family for $29.1 billion.

• Bonaccord Capital Partners acquired a minority stake in Prime Finance, a commercial real estate credit platform with over $15 billion in assets under management.

• CVC Capital Partners made a non-binding offer to acquire the remaining shares of Recordati (Milan: REC), an Italian pharmaceutical company in which it already holds a controlling stake, valuing the company at €10.9 billion.

• KKR, Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, and PAI Partners have advanced to the next round of bidding for a 50% stake in Nestlé's European water and premium beverages business, including the Perrier and San Pellegrino brands, in a deal that could value the unit at around $5.75 billion, per the Financial Times.

• Mastercard (NYSE: MA) is exploring the sale of its real-time payments unit, acquired from Nets Group for $3.2 billion in 2019, with any deal expected to come in below that price, per the Financial Times.

• Astorg Mid-Cap agreed to acquire a majority stake in Barkene, a French B2B technical services platform for electronic security and fire safety, from Montefiore Investment.

• Novartis (NYSE: NVS) agreed to acquire Excellergy, a Palo Alto-based biotech developing next-generation anti-IgE therapies for allergic diseases, for up to $2 billion in upfront and milestone payments.

• Altor Equity Partners and SMS Group have hired Deutsche Bank to explore a sale of their combined 50% stake in Kaefer, a German industrial services company that could be valued at more than €2 billion, per Bloomberg.

• Claro agreed to acquire a 73% stake in Desktop, a Brazilian fiber broadband provider, for approximately $750 million from H.I.G. Capital.

• Raiffeisen Bank International agreed to acquire Garanti BBVA Group Romania, a Romanian banking unit, from Garanti BBVA for €591 million.

• Fertitta Entertainment agreed to acquire the Connecticut Sun, a WNBA franchise, from the Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority for a record $300 million.

• Yesway, a Fort Worth-based convenience store and gas station operator backed by Brookwood Financial Partners and HPS Investment Partners, filed for a Nasdaq IPO targeting an estimated $300 million raise.

• Blackstone invested $250 million in Advanced Digital Gaming Technology, an Abu Dhabi-based payments and data intelligence platform.

• Sixth Street Partners is nearing a deal to acquire an 80% stake in Sunderland AFC's women's team, per Bloomberg.

• Terminus Capital Partners acquired a majority stake in Andesa Services, an Allentown, Pennsylvania-based provider of insurance and annuity policy administration software.

• Synergy Sports Capital acquired the operating rights for LOVB Salt Lake, a women's professional volleyball franchise, from LOVB.

• Bow River Capital's Software Growth Equity team acquired a majority stake in TrackVia, a Denver-based cloud platform for workflow and compliance management serving government and commercial clients.

• TruArc Partners acquired Matrix Adhesives Group, a Columbus, Ohio-based adhesive and sealant solutions provider, from Goldner Hawn.

• Miller Environmental Group, a Coalesce Capital portfolio company, acquired Haz-Mat Environmental Services, a Charlotte-based industrial waste treatment and disposal provider, and Canco, a South Carolina-based industrial services firm.

• Vision Innovation Partners, backed by Gryphon Investors, acquired Frederick Eye Institute, an ophthalmology practice in Frederick, Maryland.

• Universal Plant Services, a portfolio company of New State Capital Partners, acquired Mechanical Solutions Inc., a Whippany, New Jersey-based engineering firm focused on fluid machinery and turbomachinery systems.

• Allvia, a workforce services platform backed by Trinity Hunt Partners, acquired HR Pals, an LA-based provider of outsourced HR administration and employee support services.

• Advent International invested in Atwell, a Southfield, Michigan-based provider of engineering, consulting, and construction services for critical infrastructure.

Tech, Vertical SaaS, & Misc. Enterprise

• Sycamore Labs, a Palo Alto-based AI agent operating system for enterprises, raised $65 million in seed funding co-led by Coatue and Lightspeed Venture Partners, with participation from Abstract Ventures, Dell Technologies Capital, 8VC, Fellows Fund, and E14 Fund.

• Sett, an Israeli platform that automates marketing and user acquisition for mobile game publishers, raised $30 million in Series B funding led by Greenfield Partners, with participation from F2 Venture Capital, Bessemer Venture Partners, and TIRTA Ventures.

Fintech

• Tazapay, a Singapore-based cross-border payments infrastructure provider for emerging markets, raised $36 million in Series B extension funding led by Circle Ventures, with participation from Coinbase Ventures, CMT Digital, Peak XV Partners, GMO Venture Partners, January Capital, Ripple, Norinchukin Capital, ARC180, and RTP Global.

• Worth, an Orlando-based fintech platform providing AI-powered SMB onboarding and underwriting for financial institutions, raised $30 million in Series A funding led by Fulcrum Equity Partners, with participation from Amex Ventures and TTV Capital.

Healthcare

• Blossom Health, a New York-based telepsychiatry platform, raised $20 million across seed and Series A funding led by Headline, with participation from Village Global, TA Ventures, Operator Partners, and Correlation Ventures.

Industrials, Greentech, & Other

• Aetherflux, a solar-powered orbital satellite platform for AI computing, is seeking to raise $250 million to $300 million in Series B funding at a $2 billion valuation, led by Index Ventures.

• Xona Space Systems, a satellite-based GPS-alternative positioning, navigation, and timing infrastructure provider, raised $170 million in Series C funding led by Mohari Ventures Natural Capital, with participation from Craft Ventures, ICONIQ, Woven Capital, NGP Capital, Samsung Next, and Hexagon.

• Blackstone raised $6.3 billion for Blackstone Life Sciences VI.

• Inflexion raised €4.5 billion for its seventh flagship buyout fund.

Interested in partnering with Transacted? If you’re a financial services firm looking to connect with an engaged audience, please reach out.